Shocks geopolíticos y precios del petróleo: Análisis econométrico de la marginalidad productiva en Venezuela 2025–2026

Humberto Jesús Suárez-Agreda; Jacqueline Gloria Riveros-Matos; Raúl Eleazar Arias-Sánchez; Oscar  Llancari Chocce

doi:10.61286/e-rms.v4i.383

Autores

Humberto Jesús Suárez-Agreda Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Huancavelica, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8688-1106
Jacqueline Gloria Riveros-Matos Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Perú https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7392-2544
Raúl Eleazar Arias-Sánchez Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Huancavelica, Perù https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4604-9507
Oscar Llancari Chocce Universidad Nacional de Huancavelica, Huancavelica, Perú https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4101-0642

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61286/e-rms.v4i.383

Palavras-chave:

crudo Brent, riesgo geopolítico, ARIMAX, DXY, Venezuela, marginalidad operativa.

Resumo

Introducción: Los mercados petroleros se caracterizan por una interacción compleja entre fundamentos de oferta, demanda y expectativas geopolíticas. En este contexto, Venezuela ha pasado de ser un pilar estratégico a un productor marginal debido a un colapso estructural iniciado a mediados de la década de 2010. Objetivo: Evaluar empíricamente si los eventos geopolíticos en un productor de relevancia sistémica disminuida, como Venezuela, mantienen la capacidad de influir en los precios internacionales del crudo durante el bienio 2025–2026. Metodología: Se empleó un enfoque econométrico robusto utilizando modelos de vectores autorregresivos con variables exógenas (VARX) y modelos autorregresivos integrados de media móvil con variables exógenas (ARIMAX) sobre una serie de 131 observaciones mensuales (2015–2025). Se controló por factores financieros globales mediante el índice del dólar (DXY). Resultados: El modelo ARIMAX reveló que la trayectoria del precio del Brent está dominada por su inercia histórica (coeficiente de 0,903) y por el índice DXY (coeficiente de -2,222; p = 0,009). El choque geopolítico de 2026 resultó estadísticamente insignificante (p = 1,000), careciendo de impacto material en la formación de precios globales. Conclusiones: La arquitectura del mercado petrolero actual muestra una "inmunidad" ante crisis en productores periféricos, priorizando la eficiencia informacional y los fundamentos macrofinancieros sobre la retórica política. Se concluye que la relevancia geopolítica de un actor es directamente proporcional a su capacidad operativa; en contextos de marginalidad productiva, el ruido político doméstico se convierte en un evento local sin trascendencia en los mercados internacionales.

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